Marinhense 1–0 Oliveira Hospital: Result & Stats

Marinhense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oliveira Hospital

Sérgio Pereira 62'

3/8/2020

League #459 · Group C - 25Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande (Marinha Grande)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marinhense28%

×Draw30%

Oliveira Hospital42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinhenseExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.17

Marinhense

0.90

Oliveira Hospital

1.17

Oliveira Hospital creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Marinhense

0.67

Oliveira Hospital

1.00

allows per match

Marinhense

1.33

Oliveira Hospital

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw

58%

Marinhense or Oliveira Hospital

70%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

72%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+

10%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals

59%

Marinhense 2+ goals

23%

Marinhense 3+ goals

6%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

69%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

33%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)

40%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 0.67 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.00 + Marinhense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marinhense scores more

28%

level

30%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

42%

Oliveira Hospital at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Clé← Zé Francisco

59'

Sérgio Pereira← Henrique Santos

62'

Sérgio Pereira

68'

Diogo Mingachos← Henrique Leça

80'

Samuel Garrido← T. Maeda

86'

Pedro Rodrigues← André Perre

90'

Elton Lopes← J. Sinisterra

Marinhense

Oliveira

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▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tiago Vicente

59'▲Sérgio Pereira←▼Henrique Santos

86'▲Pedro Rodrigues←▼André Perre

90'▲Elton Lopes←▼J. Sinisterra

Marinhense substitutes

PereiraRodriguesLopes

Manager: Miguel Valença

56'▲Clé←▼Zé Francisco

68'▲Diogo Mingachos←▼Henrique Leça

80'▲Samuel Garrido←▼T. Maeda

Oliveira Hospital substitutes

CléMingachosGarrido