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Marineros de Puntarenas vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pocociadvanced
11/18/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas48%
×Draw24%
Cariari Pococi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.71
Cariari Pococi
1.25

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 107 away

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.62
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.27
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw
72%
Marineros de Puntarenas or Cariari Pococi
76%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
52%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
26%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
82%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
51%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
24%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
71%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
36%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
63%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
48%
level
24%
Cariari Pococi scores more
28%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marineros de Puntarenas vs Cariari Pococi

Cariari Pococi beat Marineros de Puntarenas 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.