Cariari Pococi 2–1 Marineros de Puntarenas

Cariari Pococi

FT

2 – 1

Marineros de Puntarenas

11/13/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsPolideportivo de Cariarí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cariari Pococi42%

×Draw24%

Marineros de Puntarenas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cariari PocociExpected goals in this matchMarineros de Puntarenas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.47

Cariari Pococi

1.64

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.47

Cariari Pococi creates 12% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 37 away

1.68

creates per match

1.54

1.40

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Cariari Pococi

1.68

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.54

allows per match

Cariari Pococi

1.40

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw

66%

Cariari Pococi or Marineros de Puntarenas

76%

Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas

58%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

21%

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

81%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

49%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

23%

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals

77%

Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals

43%

Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

55%

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more

42%

level

24%

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more

34%

Cariari Pococi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff