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Marineros de Puntarenas vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
CANC
20:00
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
4/10/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas53%
×Draw23%
AS Puma Generalena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.77
AS Puma Generalena
1.09

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 62% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 74 away

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.62
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.27
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw
77%
Marineros de Puntarenas or AS Puma Generalena
77%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
47%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
30%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
83%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
53%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
26%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
66%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
30%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
69%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
53%
level
23%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
23%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marineros de Puntarenas face AS Puma Generalena (Liga de Ascenso)

Liga de Ascenso returns with Marineros de Puntarenas hosting AS Puma Generalena. Match starts April 10, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.