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AS Puma Generalena vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
3 – 3
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
11/7/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 18Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AS Puma Generalena37%
×Draw25%
Marineros de Puntarenas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.44
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 37 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
62%
AS Puma Generalena or Marineros de Puntarenas
75%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
63%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
17%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
76%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
42%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
18%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
77%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
42%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
50%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
37%
level
25%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
38%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Puma Generalena vs Marineros de Puntarenas

AS Puma Generalena and Marineros de Puntarenas drew 3-3 in Liga de Ascenso on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.