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Marineros de Puntarenas vs AD Guanacasteca — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
FT
0 – 0
AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
2/28/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas41%
×Draw24%
AD Guanacasteca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.56
AD Guanacasteca
1.40

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 50 away

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.62
AD Guanacasteca
1.52

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.27
AD Guanacasteca
1.50

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par
AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

AD Guanacasteca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw
66%
Marineros de Puntarenas or AD Guanacasteca
76%
Draw or AD Guanacasteca
59%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
20%
AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
79%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
46%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
21%
AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
75%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
41%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
55%
AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
41%
level
24%
AD Guanacasteca scores more
34%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Marineros de Puntarenas 0–0 AD Guanacasteca

Marineros de Puntarenas and AD Guanacasteca drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.