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AD Guanacasteca vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
FT
2 – 0
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
1/16/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Chorotega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AD Guanacasteca41%
×Draw25%
Marineros de Puntarenas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Guanacasteca
1.47
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.29

AD Guanacasteca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.35
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.04
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw
67%
AD Guanacasteca or Marineros de Puntarenas
75%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
59%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
20%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
77%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
43%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
18%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
72%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
37%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
55%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 52 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.35 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more
41%
level
25%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
33%

AD Guanacasteca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Guanacasteca 2–0 Marineros de Puntarenas

AD Guanacasteca beat Marineros de Puntarenas 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Chorotega in Nicoya.