Marineros de Puntarenas 2–1 AD Cofutpa

Marineros de Puntarenas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

AD Cofutpa

2/27/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas47%

×Draw25%

AD Cofutpa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marineros de PuntarenasExpected goals in this matchAD Cofutpa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.21

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.62

AD Cofutpa

1.21

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 121 away

1.62

creates per match

1.14

1.27

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.62

AD Cofutpa

1.14

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.27

AD Cofutpa

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

AD Cofutpa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw

71%

Marineros de Puntarenas or AD Cofutpa

75%

Draw or AD Cofutpa

53%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+

24%

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals

80%

Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals

48%

Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals

22%

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals

70%

AD Cofutpa 2+ goals

34%

AD Cofutpa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)

62%

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

AD Cofutpa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

AD Cofutpa attack 1.14 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more

47%

level

25%

AD Cofutpa scores more

29%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff