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AD Cofutpa vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
1/13/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AD Cofutpa42%
×Draw23%
Marineros de Puntarenas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Cofutpa
1.70
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.52

AD Cofutpa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 37 away

creates per match

AD Cofutpa
1.80
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

AD Cofutpa
1.49
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw
65%
AD Cofutpa or Marineros de Puntarenas
77%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
58%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
22%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
82%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
51%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
24%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
78%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
45%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
55%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.80 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more
42%
level
23%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
35%

AD Cofutpa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Cofutpa vs Marineros de Puntarenas

Marineros de Puntarenas beat AD Cofutpa 6-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.