Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mariehamn vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2025

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
Preview
16:00
Lahti
Lahti
7/20/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 16
Big match
40%
Mariehamn
model favours
40%25%35%

Mariehamn score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mariehamn40%
×Draw25%
Lahti35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.45
Lahti
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.10
Lahti
0.80

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.90
Lahti
1.80

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
65%
Mariehamn or Lahti
75%
Draw or Lahti
60%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
19%
Lahti wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
77%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
42%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
18%
Lahti 1+ goals
74%
Lahti 2+ goals
39%
Lahti 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
53%
Lahti (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.10 + Lahti defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lahti attack 0.80 + Mariehamn defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mariehamn scores more
40%
level
25%
Lahti scores more
35%

Mariehamn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mariehamn fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)
  • 31% of Lahti’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mariehamn
LLLLL
Lahti
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mariehamn host Lahti

July 20, 2026: Mariehamn take on Lahti in Veikkausliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.