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Lahti vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2025

Lahti
Lahti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
Martim Augusto 20'
S. Dahlstrom 71' (pen)
5/10/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 6Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lahti59%
×Draw22%
Mariehamn19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.91
Mariehamn
0.99

Lahti creates 93% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.69
Mariehamn
0.83

allows per match

Lahti
1.15
Mariehamn
2.13

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
81%
Lahti or Mariehamn
78%
Draw or Mariehamn
41%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
35%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
85%
Lahti 2+ goals
57%
Lahti 3+ goals
30%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
63%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
26%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
75%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.69 + Mariehamn defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.91

Mariehamn attack 0.83 + Lahti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lahti scores more
59%
level
22%
Mariehamn scores more
19%

Lahti at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
C. MontielLahtiLahti · M
8.3

Match Events

20'
Martim Augusto↳ C. Montiel
46'
N. Dosis← M. Hyvonen
46'
L. Andersson← A. Lundberg
67'
D. Heikkinen← Martim Augusto
70'
Romaric Yapi
71'
S. DahlstromPenalty
73'
Romain Sans
74'
O. Koskinen← E. Andersson
78'
J. Lehtonen← R. Yapi
78'
J. Heyden← A. Huttunen
78'
L. Pearce← S. Dahlstrom
83'
Tuomas Koivisto
89'
Yohan Cassubie
90+3'
A. Soiniemi← S. Ngulube

Possession

60%Lahti

Shots

14Lahti

Pass accuracy

55%Lahti

Statistics

LahtiMariehamn
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots2
1.99Expected Goals (xG)1.03
6Corners6
12Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots2
5On Target1
5Off Target1
4Blocked0
10Inside Box2
4Outside Box0
Passing
60%Possession40%
459Total Passes300
390Accurate Passes209
85%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Lahti vs Mariehamn

Lahti and Mariehamn drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 10, 2026.

Goals: Martim Augusto (20'), S. Dahlstrom (71' pen).

Lahti controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 2.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.