Mariehamn 0–0 Lahti: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Mariehamn

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lahti

8/18/2024

Veikkausliiga · Round 20Wiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mariehamn38%

×Draw26%

Lahti35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MariehamnExpected goals in this matchLahti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Mariehamn

1.34

Lahti

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

1.05

creates per match

0.73

1.82

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Mariehamn

1.05

Lahti

0.73

allows per match

Mariehamn

1.82

Lahti

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Lahti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw

65%

Mariehamn or Lahti

74%

Draw or Lahti

62%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+

17%

Lahti wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals

74%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

39%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

15%

Lahti 1+ goals

72%

Lahti 2+ goals

36%

Lahti 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

52%

Lahti (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.05 + Lahti defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lahti attack 0.73 + Mariehamn defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mariehamn scores more

38%

level

26%

Lahti scores more

35%

Mariehamn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. Puukko← Jordão Cardoso

13'

Pedro Machado

39'

Jiri Nissinen

42'

Luke Ivanovic

58'

T. Olawale← Hugo Cardoso

65'

M. Ojala← R. Sid

76'

T. Jäntti← L. Ivanovic

85'

L. Andersson← J. Reid

90'

A. Babiker← Luquinhas

Mariehamn5-3-2

Lahti3-4-3

22

▼

Luquinhas

9

López

15

▼

26

27

8

13

▼

4

21

32

31

32

33

14

22

20

28

17

▼

Sid

11

▼

Reid

19

Sabo

7

Larsson

77

▼

Cardoso

Manager: Bruno Romão

58'▲T. Olawale←▼Hugo Cardoso

65'▲M. Ojala←▼R. Sid

85'▲L. Andersson←▼J. Reid

Mariehamn substitutes

18Olawale10Ojala43Andersson5Peterson80Viitala4Auvinen30Okereke

Manager: Ricardo Duarte

11'▲A. Puukko←▼Jordão Cardoso

76'▲T. Jäntti←▼L. Ivanovic

90'▲A. Babiker←▼Luquinhas

Lahti substitutes

29Puukko17Jäntti24Babiker11Koskinen30Munukka25Inkinen20Könkkölä