Mariehamn 1–1 Lahti: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Mariehamn

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lahti

3/31/2019

Suomen Cup · Quarter-finalsEckeröhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mariehamn26%

×Draw22%

Lahti52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MariehamnExpected goals in this matchLahti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.95

Mariehamn

1.32

Lahti

1.95

Lahti creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

1.42

creates per match

2.65

1.25

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Mariehamn

1.42

Lahti

2.65

allows per match

Mariehamn

1.25

Lahti

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Lahti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw

48%

Mariehamn or Lahti

78%

Draw or Lahti

74%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+

11%

Lahti wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals

73%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

38%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

15%

Lahti 1+ goals

86%

Lahti 2+ goals

58%

Lahti 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

33%

Lahti (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.42 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lahti attack 2.65 + Mariehamn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mariehamn scores more

26%

level

22%

Lahti scores more

52%

Lahti at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff