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Mariehamn vs KPV Kokkola — Veikkausliiga 2018

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
7/14/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 15Wiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mariehamn41%
×Draw24%
KPV Kokkola35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.55
KPV Kokkola
1.41

Mariehamn creates 10% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.24
KPV Kokkola
1.21

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.60
KPV Kokkola
1.86

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
65%
Mariehamn or KPV Kokkola
76%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
59%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
20%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
79%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
46%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
20%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
76%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
41%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
54%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.24 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.55

KPV Kokkola attack 1.21 + Mariehamn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mariehamn scores more
41%
level
24%
KPV Kokkola scores more
35%

Mariehamn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Mariehamn 3–0 KPV Kokkola

Mariehamn beat KPV Kokkola 3-0 in Veikkausliiga on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Mariehamn.