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KPV Kokkola vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2018

KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
4/25/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 4OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KPV Kokkola40%
×Draw26%
Mariehamn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV Kokkola
1.43
Mariehamn
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 120 away

creates per match

KPV Kokkola
1.15
Mariehamn
1.02

allows per match

KPV Kokkola
1.62
Mariehamn
1.71

finishing

KPV Kokkola+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV Kokkola ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

KPV Kokkola or draw
65%
KPV Kokkola or Mariehamn
74%
Draw or Mariehamn
60%

Winning margin

KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
19%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
76%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
42%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
17%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
73%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
38%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
53%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV Kokkola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mariehamn attack 1.02 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KPV Kokkola scores more
40%
level
26%
Mariehamn scores more
35%

KPV Kokkola at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KPV Kokkola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KPV Kokkola vs Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat KPV Kokkola 4-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 25, 2019.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinajoki.