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Mariánské Lázně vs Komárov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Komárov
Komárov
11/4/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mariánské Lázně44%
×Draw23%
Komárov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
1.76
Komárov
1.52

Mariánské Lázně creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Komárov
1.47

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Komárov
1.70

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Komárov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Komárov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
67%
Mariánské Lázně or Komárov
77%
Draw or Komárov
56%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
23%
Komárov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
83%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
52%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
26%
Komárov 1+ goals
78%
Komárov 2+ goals
45%
Komárov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
57%
Komárov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Komárov away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Komárov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.76

Komárov attack 1.47 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
44%
level
23%
Komárov scores more
33%

Mariánské Lázně at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mariánské Lázně vs Komárov

Komárov beat Mariánské Lázně 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria in Mariánské Lázně.