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Komárov vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Komárov
Komárov
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
3/4/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 16Hřiště FK Komárov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Komárov54%
×Draw21%
Mariánské Lázně25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárov
2.16
Mariánské Lázně
1.44

Komárov creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

creates per match

Komárov
2.08
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Komárov
1.40
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Komárov+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárov ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Komárov or draw
75%
Komárov or Mariánské Lázně
79%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
46%

Winning margin

Komárov wins by 2+
32%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Komárov 1+ goals
88%
Komárov 2+ goals
63%
Komárov 3+ goals
36%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
76%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
42%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Komárov (draw refunded)
68%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárov attack 2.08 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Komárov defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Komárov scores more
54%
level
21%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
25%

Komárov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Komárov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárov vs Mariánské Lázně

Komárov beat Mariánské Lázně 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Komárov in Komárov.