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Mariánské Lázně vs Doubravka — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doubravka
Doubravka
6/8/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 30Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mariánské Lázně46%
×Draw23%
Doubravka31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
1.79
Doubravka
1.43

Mariánské Lázně creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Doubravka
1.27

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Doubravka
1.75

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Doubravka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
69%
Mariánské Lázně or Doubravka
77%
Draw or Doubravka
54%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
25%
Doubravka wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
83%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
53%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
26%
Doubravka 1+ goals
76%
Doubravka 2+ goals
42%
Doubravka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
60%
Doubravka (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
46%
level
23%
Doubravka scores more
31%

Mariánské Lázně at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mariánské Lázně vs Doubravka

Mariánské Lázně and Doubravka drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria in Mariánské Lázně.