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Doubravka vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Doubravka
Doubravka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 15Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Doubravka54%
×Draw20%
Mariánské Lázně26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doubravka
2.26
Mariánské Lázně
1.52

Doubravka creates 49% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

creates per match

Doubravka
2.28
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Doubravka
1.55
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw
74%
Doubravka or Mariánské Lázně
80%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
46%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+
33%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals
89%
Doubravka 2+ goals
66%
Doubravka 3+ goals
39%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
78%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
45%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)
68%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.26

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Doubravka scores more
54%
level
20%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
26%

Doubravka at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Doubravka 1–1 Mariánské Lázně

Doubravka and Mariánské Lázně drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice in Plzeň.