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Maria Saal vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Maria Saal
Maria Saal
CANC
21:00
Gmünd
Gmünd
4/14/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Maria Saal44%
×Draw23%
Gmünd33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maria Saal
1.81
Gmünd
1.53

Maria Saal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

Maria Saal
1.83
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

Maria Saal
1.94
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw
67%
Maria Saal or Gmünd
77%
Draw or Gmünd
56%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+
24%
Gmünd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals
84%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
54%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
27%
Gmünd 1+ goals
78%
Gmünd 2+ goals
45%
Gmünd 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)
57%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maria Saal scores more
44%
level
23%
Gmünd scores more
33%

Maria Saal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maria Saal vs Gmünd — Match Preview

Maria Saal face Gmünd on April 14, 2021 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Maria Saal host Gmünd at Sportplatz Maria Saal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.