Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gmünd vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
FT
1 – 0
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
10/29/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gmünd57%
×Draw21%
Maria Saal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
2.11
Maria Saal
1.23

Gmünd creates 72% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 49 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
78%
Gmünd or Maria Saal
79%
Draw or Maria Saal
43%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
35%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
88%
Gmünd 2+ goals
62%
Gmünd 3+ goals
35%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
71%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
35%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
72%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.11

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gmünd scores more
57%
level
21%
Maria Saal scores more
22%

Gmünd at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Gmünd 1–0 Maria Saal

Gmünd beat Maria Saal 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd in Gmünd.