Maria Saal 1–1 Admira Villach: Result & Stats

Maria Saal

FT

1 – 1

Admira Villach

9/26/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 11Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Maria Saal59%

×Draw19%

Admira Villach22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maria SaalExpected goals in this matchAdmira Villach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.44

Maria Saal

2.45

Admira Villach

1.44

Maria Saal creates 70% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

0.94

1.94

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Maria Saal

1.83

Admira Villach

0.94

allows per match

Maria Saal

1.94

Admira Villach

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par

Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

Admira Villach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw

78%

Maria Saal or Admira Villach

81%

Draw or Admira Villach

41%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+

38%

Admira Villach wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals

91%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

70%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

44%

Admira Villach 1+ goals

76%

Admira Villach 2+ goals

42%

Admira Villach 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

73%

Admira Villach (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.45

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Maria Saal scores more

59%

level

19%

Admira Villach scores more

22%

Maria Saal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff