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Admira Villach vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Admira Villach
Admira Villach
FT
5 – 1
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
5/14/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 28Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Admira Villach40%
×Draw21%
Maria Saal39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Villach
1.94
Maria Saal
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Admira Villach
1.35
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Admira Villach
2.41
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Admira Villach+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Villach ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Admira Villach or draw
61%
Admira Villach or Maria Saal
79%
Draw or Maria Saal
60%

Winning margin

Admira Villach wins by 2+
21%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Admira Villach 1+ goals
86%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
58%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
30%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
85%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
57%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Admira Villach (draw refunded)
50%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Villach at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Villach attack 1.35 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Admira Villach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Admira Villach scores more
40%
level
21%
Maria Saal scores more
39%

Admira Villach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Admira Villach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Admira Villach vs Maria Saal

Admira Villach beat Maria Saal 5-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach in Villach.