Margarita FC 2–0 Libertador FC: Result & Stats

Margarita FC

FT

2 – 0

Libertador FC

8/25/2018

Segunda División · Clausura - 8Ciudad Deportiva Nueva Esparta (Pampatar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Margarita FC47%

×Draw26%

Libertador FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Margarita FCExpected goals in this matchLibertador FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.01

Margarita FC

1.46

Libertador FC

1.01

Margarita FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

1.59

creates per match

0.73

1.29

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Margarita FC

1.59

Libertador FC

0.73

allows per match

Margarita FC

1.29

Libertador FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Margarita FC+0.00on par

Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Margarita FC ↓

Libertador FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Margarita FC or draw

74%

Margarita FC or Libertador FC

74%

Draw or Libertador FC

53%

Winning margin

Margarita FC wins by 2+

23%

Libertador FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Margarita FC 1+ goals

77%

Margarita FC 2+ goals

43%

Margarita FC 3+ goals

18%

Libertador FC 1+ goals

64%

Libertador FC 2+ goals

27%

Libertador FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Margarita FC (draw refunded)

64%

Libertador FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Margarita FC at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Margarita FC attack 1.59 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Margarita FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Margarita FC scores more

47%

level

26%

Libertador FC scores more

26%

Margarita FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Margarita FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff