Libertador FC 1–1 Margarita FC: Result & Stats

Libertador FC

FT

1 – 1

Margarita FC

3/25/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertador FC39%

×Draw27%

Margarita FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertador FCExpected goals in this matchMargarita FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.24

Libertador FC

1.33

Margarita FC

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

1.19

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Libertador FC

1.30

Margarita FC

1.29

allows per match

Libertador FC

1.19

Margarita FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par

Margarita FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Margarita FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw

65%

Libertador FC or Margarita FC

73%

Draw or Margarita FC

61%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+

18%

Margarita FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals

74%

Libertador FC 2+ goals

38%

Libertador FC 3+ goals

15%

Margarita FC 1+ goals

71%

Margarita FC 2+ goals

35%

Margarita FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)

53%

Margarita FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Margarita FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Margarita FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Margarita FC attack 1.29 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Libertador FC scores more

39%

level

27%

Margarita FC scores more

35%

Libertador FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff