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Marek vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
6 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
11/21/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 16Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Marek74%
×Draw16%
Granit Vladaya9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
2.40
Granit Vladaya
0.72

Marek creates 233% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 70 away

creates per match

Marek
2.17
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Marek or draw
91%
Marek or Granit Vladaya
84%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
26%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
51%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
91%
Marek 2+ goals
69%
Marek 3+ goals
42%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
51%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
16%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
89%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 2.17 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.40

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Marek scores more
74%
level
16%
Granit Vladaya scores more
9%

Marek at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Marek 6–0 Granit Vladaya

Marek beat Granit Vladaya 6-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.