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Granit Vladaya vs Marek — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
1 – 2
Marek
Marek
5/22/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 33Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Granit Vladaya32%
×Draw25%
Marek43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.26
Marek
1.50

Marek creates 19% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 58 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Marek
1.41

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Marek
1.38

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Marek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
57%
Granit Vladaya or Marek
75%
Draw or Marek
68%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
14%
Marek wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
72%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
36%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
13%
Marek 1+ goals
78%
Marek 2+ goals
44%
Marek 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
43%
Marek (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Marek away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Marek defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Marek attack 1.41 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
32%
level
25%
Marek scores more
43%

Marek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Granit Vladaya 1–2 Marek

Marek beat Granit Vladaya 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.