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Marek vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
10/1/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Marek42%
×Draw28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.27
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.03

Marek creates 23% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Marek
0.71
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marek or draw
70%
Marek or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
72%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
58%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
19%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
72%
Marek 2+ goals
36%
Marek 3+ goals
14%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
64%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
58%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marek scores more
42%
level
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
30%

Marek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marek vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Marek and CSKA 1948 Sofia II drew 0-0 in Second League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.