CSKA 1948 Sofia II 0–1 Marek: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marek

4/22/2024

Second League · Round 29Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II52%

×Draw27%

Marek21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchMarek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.78

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.42

Marek

0.78

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 69 away

1.56

creates per match

0.62

0.94

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.56

Marek

0.62

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

0.94

Marek

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Marek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw

79%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Marek

73%

Draw or Marek

48%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

26%

Marek wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

76%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

41%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

17%

Marek 1+ goals

54%

Marek 2+ goals

18%

Marek 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

72%

Marek (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Marek away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Marek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Marek attack 0.62 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

52%

level

27%

Marek scores more

21%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 0–1 Marek

Marek beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1-0 in Second League on April 22, 2024.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Marek — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 0–1 Marek