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Marek vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
8/5/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 4Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Marek58%
×Draw26%
Chernomorets Balchik16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.50
Chernomorets Balchik
0.66

Marek creates 127% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 43 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Marek or draw
84%
Marek or Chernomorets Balchik
74%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
42%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
30%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
78%
Marek 2+ goals
44%
Marek 3+ goals
19%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
48%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
14%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
78%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Marek scores more
58%
level
26%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
16%

Marek at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Marek 1–0 Chernomorets Balchik

Marek beat Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 in Second League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.