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Chernomorets Balchik vs Marek — Second League 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Marek
Marek
2/17/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik47%
×Draw29%
Marek24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
1.25
Marek
0.80

Chernomorets Balchik creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
1.23
Marek
0.62

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.98
Marek
1.28

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Marek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
76%
Chernomorets Balchik or Marek
71%
Draw or Marek
53%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
21%
Marek wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
36%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
13%
Marek 1+ goals
55%
Marek 2+ goals
19%
Marek 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
66%
Marek (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Marek away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.23 + Marek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Marek attack 0.62 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
47%
level
29%
Marek scores more
24%

Chernomorets Balchik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Chernomorets Balchik 0–2 Marek

Marek beat Chernomorets Balchik 2-0 in Second League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.