Marconi Stallions 3–3 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Marconi Stallions

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

7/15/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 24Fairfield Showground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Marconi Stallions50%

×Draw22%

Western Sydney Wanderers U2128%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marconi StallionsExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.46

Marconi Stallions

2.02

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.46

Marconi Stallions creates 38% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

2.16

creates per match

1.65

1.28

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Marconi Stallions

2.16

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.65

allows per match

Marconi Stallions

1.28

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw

72%

Marconi Stallions or Western Sydney Wanderers U21

78%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21

50%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+

29%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals

87%

Marconi Stallions 2+ goals

60%

Marconi Stallions 3+ goals

33%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals

77%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals

43%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)

64%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.02

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more

50%

level

22%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more

28%

Marconi Stallions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff