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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Joinville U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Joinville U20
Joinville U20
6/14/2025Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 11CT do Marcílio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2052%
×Draw22%
Joinville U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
1.92
Joinville U20
1.27

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Joinville U20
1.33

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Joinville U20
2.19

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Joinville U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Joinville U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
75%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Joinville U20
78%
Draw or Joinville U20
48%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
30%
Joinville U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
85%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
57%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
30%
Joinville U20 1+ goals
72%
Joinville U20 2+ goals
36%
Joinville U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Joinville U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Joinville U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Joinville U20 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Joinville U20 attack 1.33 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
52%
level
22%
Joinville U20 scores more
25%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Marcilio Dias U20 2–1 Joinville U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Joinville U20 2-1 in Catarinense U20 on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at CT do Marcílio Dias in Camboriú, Santa Catarina.