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Joinville U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Joinville U20
Joinville U20
FT
1 – 3
Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
3/30/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Treinamentos do Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Joinville U2037%
×Draw24%
Marcilio Dias U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Joinville U20
1.50
Marcilio Dias U20
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Joinville U20
1.32
Marcilio Dias U20
1.79

allows per match

Joinville U20
1.32
Marcilio Dias U20
1.68

finishing

Joinville U20+0.00on par
Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joinville U20 ↓

Marcilio Dias U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Joinville U20 or draw
61%
Joinville U20 or Marcilio Dias U20
76%
Draw or Marcilio Dias U20
63%

Winning margin

Joinville U20 wins by 2+
17%
Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Joinville U20 1+ goals
78%
Joinville U20 2+ goals
44%
Joinville U20 3+ goals
19%
Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
79%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
46%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Joinville U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joinville U20 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Marcilio Dias U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joinville U20 attack 1.32 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.79 + Joinville U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Joinville U20 scores more
37%
level
24%
Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
39%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Joinville U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Joinville U20 3-1 in Catarinense U20 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamentos do Joinville in Joinville, Santa Catarina.