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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Hercílio Luz U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Hercílio Luz U20
Hercílio Luz U20
5/18/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2043%
×Draw24%
Hercílio Luz U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
1.60
Hercílio Luz U20
1.38

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Hercílio Luz U20
1.55

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Hercílio Luz U20
1.55

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Hercílio Luz U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
67%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Hercílio Luz U20
76%
Draw or Hercílio Luz U20
57%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
22%
Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
80%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
47%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
22%
Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals
75%
Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals
40%
Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Hercílio Luz U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 1.55 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
43%
level
24%
Hercílio Luz U20 scores more
33%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Marcilio Dias U20 2–3 Hercílio Luz U20

Hercílio Luz U20 beat Marcilio Dias U20 3-2 in Catarinense U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.