Hercílio Luz U20 0–2 Marcilio Dias U20

Hercílio Luz U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Marcilio Dias U20

7/20/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 22Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hercílio Luz U2047%

×Draw22%

Marcilio Dias U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hercílio Luz U20Expected goals in this matchMarcilio Dias U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.58

Hercílio Luz U20

1.98

Marcilio Dias U20

1.58

Hercílio Luz U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

2.27

creates per match

1.79

1.36

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Hercílio Luz U20

2.27

Marcilio Dias U20

1.79

allows per match

Hercílio Luz U20

1.36

Marcilio Dias U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz U20 ↓

Marcilio Dias U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz U20 or draw

69%

Hercílio Luz U20 or Marcilio Dias U20

78%

Draw or Marcilio Dias U20

53%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+

27%

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals

86%

Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals

59%

Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals

31%

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals

79%

Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals

47%

Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Marcilio Dias U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 2.27 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.98

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.79 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more

47%

level

22%

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more

31%

Hercílio Luz U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hercílio Luz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff