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Marcilio Dias U20 vs Figueirense U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Figueirense U20
Figueirense U20
7/25/2025Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 17CT do Marcílio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marcilio Dias U2050%
×Draw22%
Figueirense U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcilio Dias U20
1.92
Figueirense U20
1.40

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.65
Figueirense U20
1.59

allows per match

Marcilio Dias U20
1.20
Figueirense U20
2.19

finishing

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par
Figueirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcilio Dias U20 ↓

Figueirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Marcilio Dias U20 or draw
72%
Marcilio Dias U20 or Figueirense U20
78%
Draw or Figueirense U20
50%

Winning margin

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
28%
Figueirense U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
85%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
57%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
30%
Figueirense U20 1+ goals
75%
Figueirense U20 2+ goals
41%
Figueirense U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Figueirense U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcilio Dias U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Figueirense U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.65 + Figueirense U20 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Figueirense U20 attack 1.59 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
50%
level
22%
Figueirense U20 scores more
28%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcilio Dias U20 vs Figueirense U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Figueirense U20 4-3 in Catarinense U20 on July 25, 2025.

The match was played at CT do Marcílio Dias in Camboriú, Santa Catarina.