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Figueirense U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Figueirense U20
Figueirense U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
4/30/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 8Centro de Treinamentos do Figueirense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Figueirense U2043%
×Draw23%
Marcilio Dias U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueirense U20
1.75
Marcilio Dias U20
1.53

Figueirense U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Figueirense U20
1.81
Marcilio Dias U20
1.79

allows per match

Figueirense U20
1.27
Marcilio Dias U20
1.68

finishing

Figueirense U20+0.00on par
Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense U20 ↓

Marcilio Dias U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Figueirense U20 or draw
66%
Figueirense U20 or Marcilio Dias U20
77%
Draw or Marcilio Dias U20
57%

Winning margin

Figueirense U20 wins by 2+
23%
Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Figueirense U20 1+ goals
83%
Figueirense U20 2+ goals
52%
Figueirense U20 3+ goals
25%
Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
78%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
45%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Figueirense U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense U20 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Marcilio Dias U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense U20 attack 1.81 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.79 + Figueirense U20 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Figueirense U20 scores more
43%
level
23%
Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
34%

Figueirense U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Figueirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Figueirense U20 1–2 Marcilio Dias U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Figueirense U20 2-1 in Catarinense U20 on April 30, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamentos do Figueirense in Palhoça, Santa Catarina.