Marchamalo 1–1 Albacete II: Result & Stats

Marchamalo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete II

4/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 29Campo Deportivo La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Marchamalo36%

×Draw28%

Albacete II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarchamaloExpected goals in this matchAlbacete II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.21

Marchamalo

1.20

Albacete II

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 96 away

1.30

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Marchamalo

1.30

Albacete II

1.38

allows per match

Marchamalo

1.05

Albacete II

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Albacete II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw

64%

Marchamalo or Albacete II

72%

Draw or Albacete II

64%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+

15%

Albacete II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals

70%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

34%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

12%

Albacete II 1+ goals

70%

Albacete II 2+ goals

34%

Albacete II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

50%

Albacete II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marchamalo scores more

36%

level

28%

Albacete II scores more

36%

Marchamalo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff