Albacete II 2–1 Marchamalo: Result & Stats

Albacete II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Marchamalo

11/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Albacete II48%

×Draw26%

Marchamalo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albacete IIExpected goals in this matchMarchamalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.99

Albacete II

1.46

Marchamalo

0.99

Albacete II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 79 away

1.62

creates per match

1.03

0.95

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Albacete II

1.62

Marchamalo

1.03

allows per match

Albacete II

0.95

Marchamalo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Marchamalo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw

74%

Albacete II or Marchamalo

74%

Draw or Marchamalo

52%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+

24%

Marchamalo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals

77%

Albacete II 2+ goals

43%

Albacete II 3+ goals

18%

Marchamalo 1+ goals

63%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

26%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)

65%

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albacete II scores more

48%

level

26%

Marchamalo scores more

26%

Albacete II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff