Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Marcelová vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Marcelová
Marcelová
CANC
14:30
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
5/2/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Marcelová54%
×Draw26%
Lednické Rovne20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcelová
1.48
Lednické Rovne
0.79

Marcelová creates 87% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Marcelová
1.24
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Marcelová
0.76
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Marcelová+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcelová ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marcelová or draw
80%
Marcelová or Lednické Rovne
74%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
46%

Winning margin

Marcelová wins by 2+
27%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marcelová 1+ goals
77%
Marcelová 2+ goals
43%
Marcelová 3+ goals
19%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
55%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
19%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marcelová (draw refunded)
73%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcelová attack 1.24 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Marcelová scores more
54%
level
26%
Lednické Rovne scores more
20%

Marcelová at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marcelová face Lednické Rovne (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Marcelová hosting Lednické Rovne. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Marcelová host Lednické Rovne at Štadion FK Marcelová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.