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Lednické Rovne vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
1 – 2
Marcelová
Marcelová
9/27/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 8Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Lednické Rovne37%
×Draw24%
Marcelová39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.54
Marcelová
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
61%
Lednické Rovne or Marcelová
76%
Draw or Marcelová
63%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
18%
Marcelová wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
79%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
45%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
20%
Marcelová 1+ goals
79%
Marcelová 2+ goals
47%
Marcelová 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
49%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.54

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
37%
level
24%
Marcelová scores more
39%

Marcelová at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Lednické Rovne 1–2 Marcelová

Marcelová beat Lednické Rovne 2-1 in 3. liga - West on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.