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Marbelli vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbelli
Marbelli
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Málaga II
Málaga II
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Marbelli35%
×Draw29%
Málaga II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbelli
1.13
Málaga II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

creates per match

Marbelli
1.15
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Marbelli
0.94
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Marbelli+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbelli ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marbelli or draw
64%
Marbelli or Málaga II
71%
Draw or Málaga II
65%

Winning margin

Marbelli wins by 2+
14%
Málaga II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marbelli 1+ goals
68%
Marbelli 2+ goals
31%
Marbelli 3+ goals
11%
Málaga II 1+ goals
68%
Málaga II 2+ goals
32%
Málaga II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Marbelli (draw refunded)
49%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbelli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbelli attack 1.15 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Marbelli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marbelli scores more
35%
level
29%
Málaga II scores more
36%

Málaga II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marbelli vs Málaga II

Málaga II beat Marbelli 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Pedro de Alcántara.