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Málaga II vs Marbelli — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marbelli
Marbelli
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Málaga II56%
×Draw25%
Marbelli18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.57
Marbelli
0.77

Málaga II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Marbelli
0.85

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Marbelli
1.12

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Marbelli+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Marbelli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
82%
Málaga II or Marbelli
75%
Draw or Marbelli
44%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
30%
Marbelli wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
79%
Málaga II 2+ goals
46%
Málaga II 3+ goals
21%
Marbelli 1+ goals
54%
Marbelli 2+ goals
18%
Marbelli 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
75%
Marbelli (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Marbelli away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Marbelli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.57

Marbelli attack 0.85 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Málaga II scores more
56%
level
25%
Marbelli scores more
18%

Málaga II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 0–0 Marbelli

Málaga II and Marbelli drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1 in Málaga.