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Marbella vs Maracena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maracena
Maracena
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 20Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Marbella68%
×Draw20%
Maracena12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
2.03
Maracena
0.71

Marbella creates 186% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 61 away

creates per match

Marbella
2.39
Maracena
0.85

allows per match

Marbella
0.58
Maracena
1.67

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Maracena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Maracena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
88%
Marbella or Maracena
80%
Draw or Maracena
32%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
43%
Maracena wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
87%
Marbella 2+ goals
60%
Marbella 3+ goals
33%
Maracena 1+ goals
51%
Maracena 2+ goals
16%
Maracena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
85%
Maracena (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Maracena away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 2.39 + Maracena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.03

Maracena attack 0.85 + Marbella defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Marbella scores more
68%
level
20%
Maracena scores more
12%

Marbella at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marbella vs Maracena

Marbella beat Maracena 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.