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Maracena vs Marbella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marbella
Marbella
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Maracena29%
×Draw27%
Marbella44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.04
Marbella
1.34

Marbella creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Marbella
1.39

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Marbella
0.81

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
56%
Maracena or Marbella
73%
Draw or Marbella
71%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
11%
Marbella wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
65%
Maracena 2+ goals
28%
Maracena 3+ goals
9%
Marbella 1+ goals
74%
Marbella 2+ goals
39%
Marbella 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
40%
Marbella (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Marbella defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Marbella attack 1.39 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maracena scores more
29%
level
27%
Marbella scores more
44%

Marbella at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maracena vs Marbella

Marbella beat Maracena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Maracena in Maracena.