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Marbella vs Intergym — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Intergym
Intergym
12/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Marbella87%
×Draw10%
Intergym3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
2.92
Intergym
0.41

Marbella creates 612% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Marbella
2.39
Intergym
0.25

allows per match

Marbella
0.58
Intergym
3.44

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Intergym+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Intergym →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
97%
Marbella or Intergym
90%
Draw or Intergym
13%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
69%
Intergym wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
94%
Marbella 2+ goals
78%
Marbella 3+ goals
55%
Intergym 1+ goals
34%
Intergym 2+ goals
6%
Intergym 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
97%
Intergym (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Intergym away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 2.39 + Intergym defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.92

Intergym attack 0.25 + Marbella defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Marbella scores more
87%
level
10%
Intergym scores more
3%

Marbella at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marbella vs Intergym

Marbella beat Intergym 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.