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Intergym vs Marbella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Intergym
Intergym
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Marbella
Marbella
4/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym11%
×Draw19%
Marbella69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intergym
0.69
Marbella
2.07

Marbella creates 200% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Intergym
0.56
Marbella
1.39

allows per match

Intergym
2.75
Marbella
0.81

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Intergym or draw
31%
Intergym or Marbella
81%
Draw or Marbella
89%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+
3%
Marbella wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals
50%
Intergym 2+ goals
15%
Intergym 3+ goals
3%
Marbella 1+ goals
87%
Marbella 2+ goals
61%
Marbella 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)
14%
Marbella (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Marbella defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Marbella attack 1.39 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Intergym scores more
11%
level
19%
Marbella scores more
69%

Marbella at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Intergym 1–4 Marbella

Marbella beat Intergym 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.