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Marbella vs Intercity — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Intercity
Intercity
10/26/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Marbella43%
×Draw28%
Intercity29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
1.29
Intercity
1.00

Marbella creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Marbella
1.24
Intercity
0.91

allows per match

Marbella
1.08
Intercity
1.35

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Intercity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
71%
Marbella or Intercity
72%
Draw or Intercity
57%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
20%
Intercity wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
72%
Marbella 2+ goals
37%
Marbella 3+ goals
14%
Intercity 1+ goals
63%
Intercity 2+ goals
26%
Intercity 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
60%
Intercity (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Intercity away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 1.24 + Intercity defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Intercity attack 0.91 + Marbella defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marbella scores more
43%
level
28%
Intercity scores more
29%

Marbella at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Marbella 2–1 Intercity

Marbella beat Intercity 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.