Intercity 0–0 Marbella: Result & Stats

Intercity

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marbella

1/31/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Intercity46%

×Draw25%

Marbella28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntercityExpected goals in this matchMarbella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.13

Intercity

1.53

Marbella

1.13

Intercity creates 35% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.18

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Intercity

1.18

Marbella

1.05

allows per match

Intercity

1.21

Marbella

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par

Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Marbella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Intercity or draw

72%

Intercity or Marbella

75%

Draw or Marbella

54%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+

23%

Marbella wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals

78%

Intercity 2+ goals

45%

Intercity 3+ goals

20%

Marbella 1+ goals

68%

Marbella 2+ goals

31%

Marbella 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)

62%

Marbella (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Marbella defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Marbella attack 1.05 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Intercity scores more

46%

level

25%

Marbella scores more

28%

Intercity at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff